After acquiring my first job as a teacher, I knew that I needed to start seriously thinking about my finances. I had previously established credit and consciously saved throughout college, but now I was encountering a new stage in my life. I needed to reevaluate my financial plan and put money towards a 403b plan.

I was overwhelmed by all of the options that my school offered and I needed guidance to help me determine the most appropriate plan for me. I also wanted to learn how to plan for the next big purchases in my life, such as financing a house.

I decided to attend a seminar on the Life Cycle of Financial Planning presented by a Certified Financial Planner. At this seminar, I was exposed to all different aspects of financial planning from estate planning and long term care insurance to financing a new car. However, there were three key ideas that I took away from the seminar that I plan to use throughout the next stages of my life:

1. Save and start to save early: Always continue to put money towards your savings as you never know when you may need the money. Accidents and emergencies do happen and it is critical to have at least 6 months worth of cash to use in case something should happen to you.
2. Set goals and continue to reevaluate them:  When planning for big purchases you need to set financial goals for yourself so that you know how long it will take to purchase the item without acquiring any debt. It is important to reevaluate your financial goals each year to make sure that they are still aligned with your own needs.
3. Educate yourself: Attend financial seminars, fully explore all of your opportunities and seek guidance from professionals who can look at your financial plan and determine which options are best for you. When you are aware of your choices, you can choose the best plan that will enable you to have a stable and happy financial future.

Before the seminar, I spent many nights worried about my future and the difficulty I might have with financing the purchases I would want to make. Let’s face it, not many teachers go into the profession for the money!

After attending the seminar, I started to work with professionals who helped me choose the right 403b plan for me and I started to set my financial goals. I now rely on those key principals I learned at the seminar when making financial decisions in my life.

I began to get an idea of how I can maintain the lifestyle I lead and comfortably afford some big purchases as well. I can now rest assured that when I retire, I will be able to pay for my expenses, help my future children with their goals and even have a little money left over for yearly vacations.

Say so-long to the days of “empty nesters,” when parents would make life changes once their children had moved out and moved on. It is more likely that parents today are dealing with a “full nest.”

It is estimated that 85% of this year’s college graduates are planning to head back to live with mom and dad.1 And a study in 2010 by researchers at Columbia University using the U.S. Current Population Survey found that 52.8% of 18- to 24-year-olds were living at home, up from 47.3% in 1970. The study also showed that one-in-seven young adults is emerging from their teenage years with no pathway to financial and economic independence.2

For parents it can be trying. While it’s important to respect the independence of full-grown children, it’s not that easy when they are exercising that independence under your roof. What’s more, it can also be a drain financially. Food, heating, gas, electricity, and many other daily expenses can be a lot higher when they include another mouth or two.

If you find yourself with a full nest, here are a few tips to help make ends meet:

• Make a budget. Tracking what you spend and comparing it with a monthly plan will help you to identify where the money is going, and where you can cut back. It can also show what costs are truly shared and what ones relate to specific family members.
• Share the common costs. Most live-at-home adult children are there for a reason, often due to lack of a job or inability to afford a place of their own. But that does not mean they should not shoulder a portion of household expenses. Work out a realistic rent or cost-sharing arrangement and stick with it.
• Separate the individual costs. Is your live-at-home son or daughter a finicky eater? Do they demand certain foods or sundries that you would not buy otherwise? Then let them pay for them. They’ll learn to appreciate what their tastes are actually costing, and avoid resentments on your part.
• Share the chores. Assigning chores and responsibilities may seem obvious, but often it’s overlooked, leaving mom and dad to do all the work. Garbage, lawn, housework — make it clear to all who is responsible for what task.
• Don’t make it too comfortable. If your goal is to eventually nudge your fledglings out of the nest, you need to provide incentive. That means not treating them as permanent guests, but as temporary live-at-home adult children, with obligations and responsibilities of their own. In the end, they will appreciate it as much as you.

1Source: Harper’s Magazine, August 2011.

2Source: Columbia University, National Center for Children in Poverty, “A Profile of Disconnected Young Adults in 2010,” December 2010.

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by McGraw-Hill Financial Communications or its sources, neither McGraw-Hill Financial Communications nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall McGraw-Hill Financial Communications be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of the content.

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Financial Communications. All rights reserved.

As I sit with clients nowadays, the conversation turns more and more to aging parents.  When it does I often share my own experience with my mom.  Hopefully sharing this part of my life will provide you with some insight to help you with your own situation.

I have been taking care of mom for the past eleven years, beginning with her heart surgery at age 88.  She was living in Florida, getting along pretty well, friends, bingo, dinner shows and doctor appointments.  All the necessities of sun belt living.

I first realized she needed help when she didn’t understand the seriousness of her condition.  It was life threatening!  With a second opinion and our guidance, mom had bypass and valve replacement surgery.  Two years later at age 90, it was a hip replacement.  All of this was done in NY.  My wife and I were with her  through all of it, doctor appointments, surgery and rehab.   As mom was becoming the “Bionic Woman” we were learning that she was having trouble comprehending the information from the doctors.

The progression of this story goes from a condo in Florida, to an independent living facility on Long Island, to assisted living and finally a nursing home near our home.

Through working with our primary care physician, a geriatric psychiatrist and a social worker we were able to provide mom with the appropriate care through the stages of her decline in mental health.  Mom was diagnosed with vascular dementia, caused by a series of mini strokes over the years.  Her condition would decline, plateau, decline and plateau.

During this time period, she experienced various traumatic events.  Florida was hit with one of the worst hurricane seasons ever, Katrina, Rita just to name two.  The disruption to her life, the damages to her home all took a toll on her life.  She wasn’t herself.  At the independent living facility, as she overflowed her sink, flooded her apartment and those below, all she knew to do was to mop and throw towels, never thinking to turn off the water.  Mom became distraught, riddled with anxiety and hysteria.  Up to this point, it wasn’t easy for us to see her state of mind.  It is important to know, as we learned, seniors know how to cover up their deficiencies

Today, mom is 99 years old, physically frail but healthy.  Memory wise, not so good.  She isn’t aware of where she is or who people are, but fortunately she appears happy. She waves hello to everyone, smiles and says “help me”.  When asked what she needs, she just says “I don’t know”.   She knows my wife’s name, but continues to call me James, the name of her brother.  When I sometimes try to correct her and say “that’s not my name” and ask her again, she smirks, smiles and says “Jimmy”.

My recommendations to you if you have aging parents are to:

• Watch for the warning signs of memory loss
• Get the advice of healthcare professionals early on
• Reach out to your professional advisors for guidance

We have many resources to direct you to for help, whether it’s the professionals mentioned above, agencies to turn to, or checklists such as a nursing home checklist when searching and visiting facilities.

As always, we are here if you need us.

Shortly after this article was written Gus’ mother, Marie Catanzaro, passed away peacefully and joined his father.

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If you are considering purchasing a car for your student, ask the question: Why does he or she need a car?

In many cases, students leaving home for the first time are inexperienced in managing money and it is their first taste of financial independence. Parents can help prepare their children to spend wisely. There are a number of controllable expenses that can have a significant impact on the cost of your child’s college education. Read on for tips on cash management and how to cut college costs.

Credit Cards 

The advice given here about obtaining and using a credit card may seem overly cautious or protective, but abuse or overuse of a credit card is a very dangerous pitfall. Such abuse may lead to a bad credit record that will cause serious problems later in your child’s life, e.g., when attempting to rent an apartment or buy an automobile. It can also limit their ability to obtain an alternative loan in the event that you choose that option to finance a portion of the tuition bill. Opening a credit card account can help your child become more financially independent. The key to having a credit card is to be responsible and exercise restraint.

• Instruct your child to stay clear of card companies that come to college campuses offering free water bottles, T-shirts, or other promotional gimmicks.
• Help your child select one credit card before you leave home and discuss it with him or her. You might also consider tying the credit card to your account to help prevent late payments and allow you to monitor expenditures.
• Establish a modest limit, in the range of $500-$600.
• Look for a low interest rate and no annual fee.
• Instruct your child to pay the bill on time to avoid late charges, and pay it off in full each month to avoid paying interest.

Leave the Car at Home

This simple decision could save you and your child literally hundreds and even thousands of dollars. If you are considering purchasing a car for your student, ask the question: Why does he or she need a car? Yes, it may be convenient, but is it really a necessity? At many colleges, students who bring cars pay a parking fee from approximately $100-$500 annually, and in reality the parking fee is simply a hunting pass to find a parking space. There will also be additional costs for gas, oil changes, maintenance, insurance, and repairs.

If your child must bring a car to campus, make sure that you notify your insurance agent in order to avoid the possibility of no coverage if he or she has a claim. Also, note that premiums may either increase or decrease depending on your child’s on-campus or off-campus address.

Check Into Checking Accounts

Your student should consider applying for a checking account at a bank near the college. These lending institutions have experience with students who have low monthly balances and in most cases steadily declining balances from the beginning of the academic year. They should look for an account with no monthly service fee, no minimum balance, and no or nominal fees for use of an ATM machine. Also worth considering: Linking your child’s checking account with your credit card to cover any potential overdrafts.

Preventing Identity Theft

During college, students typically reside in close living quarters while on campus. Be sure your child safeguards his or her Social Security number, monthly bank statements, computer passwords, driver’s license number, credit card numbers, and other personal identification numbers and records. You may want to consider purchasing a small safe to keep in your child’s dorm room or apartment.

Excerpted from Financial Aid for the Utterly Confused by Anthony J. Bellia. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies.

© 2011 McGraw-Hill Financial Communications. All rights reserved.

When communicating about retirement savings, frame your message differently for various age groups.

Workers under the age of 35 historically have had the lowest level of participation in employer-sponsored retirement plans. When these workers get older, they will have missed opportunities for compounding that could have made it easier to build retirement assets.1

“For younger workers … retirement security lacks the urgency older workers feel,” researchers wrote in a brief published recently by the Center for Retirement Research (CRR) at Boston College. “[Younger] people tend to distance themselves from it and think about it abstractly.”

Appropriate Messaging

In other words, younger workers may have the lowest retirement plan participation and retirement savings rates, at least in part because they are not getting the right messages. To remedy that, CRR researchers designed a study that could help them determine what kind of educational messages would be most likely to have the desired effects. They took a sample population and divided it into four groups, each of which was given a different advertisement about retirement savings, with a different combination of long-term or short-term goals and concrete or abstract framing. Participants in the study were then asked a series of questions about their intended responses to the ad.

Here’s what they found. When the issue was framed in abstract terms and presented as a long-term goal, the average participant stated an intention to save nearly 18% of salary. However, when saving was presented as a short-term goal, the intended savings rate fell to just more than 9%.

On the other hand, when the issue was framed in concrete terms, participants intended to save more than 20% if the effort was presented as a short-term goal; when framed as a long-term goal, the intended savings rate dropped to about 14% of salary.

Interestingly, this distinct pattern disappeared when the researchers evaluated the responses of older workers. They found little pattern to the variations among older workers, and savings intentions did not seem to be influenced by the kinds of distinctions that characterized their younger colleagues. “Perhaps,” the authors speculated, “because their retirement is more imminent, they have already largely settled on their saving strategy, making them indifferent to the communications approach used.”

The research brief titled “How Can Employers Encourage Young Workers to Save for Retirement?” can be downloaded from Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research at crr.bc.edu.

1Source: Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, “How Can Employers Encourage Young Workers to Save for Retirement?” March 2012.

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by S&P Capital IQ Financial Communications or its sources, neither S&P Capital IQ Financial Communications nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall S&P Capital IQ Financial Communications be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of the content.

© 2012 S&P Capital IQ Financial Communications. All rights reserved.

Although many economists project overall U.S. inflation to remain modest in the near future, most see an uptick down the road.

Economists and market watchers have been warning investors about the prospect of increased inflation since the housing bubble burst in 2007.

Worries about inflation have been cropping up more frequently lately, largely due to escalating commodity prices, which are pushing up consumer prices, both in the United States and abroad. At the beginning of 2011, the inflation rate stood at a paltry 1.6%. By the end of the year, it had more than doubled to 3.4%.1 And this could be just the start of a longer-term inflationary cycle. With an improving economy and soaring federal deficits, many experts feel that prices in the United States will inevitably pick up their pace even further.

Inflation Rates Around the World (as of December 31, 2011)2

Staying Ahead

For investors, staying ahead of inflation means choosing investments that are most likely to provide returns that outpace it. Here’s a look at how a climbing inflation rate could impact various investment types and asset classes.

• Domestic Stocks — Although past performance is no guarantee of future returns, historically, stocks have provided the best potential for long-term returns that exceed inflation. An analysis of holding periods between 1926 and December 31, 2011, found that the annualized return for a portfolio composed exclusively of stocks in Standard & Poor’s Composite Index of 500 Stocks was 9.83% — well above the average inflation rate of 2.99% for the same period. However, over shorter time periods the results are not as appealing. For the 10 years ended December 31, 2011, the S&P 500 returned an average of only 2.92%, compared with an average inflation rate of 2.50%.3
• International Stocks — During the same 10-year span that ended December 31, 2011, the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) EAFE, which is composed of established economies such as Germany and Japan, outpaced U.S. inflation with an average return of 5.12%. The MSCI Emerging Markets index, which tracks developing world economies such as Brazil and China, was even more stellar, returning an average of 14.2%.4
• Bonds — Historically, investors have turned to shorter-term corporate and high-yield bonds for protection in rising-rate environments.5 There are two types of bonds that receive a lot of investor interest when inflation starts to rise: Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and I Savings Bonds. Both TIPS and I bonds are types of fixed-interest rate bonds whose value rises as inflation rates rise.
• CDs and Other Cash Instruments — The Federal Reserve is still keeping a tight lid on interest rates, forcing investors who hope to keep pace with inflation by investing in cash instruments facing a harsh reality. The rates on a one-year CD are averaging under 1%, while a five-year CD is yielding an average of under 2%, according to Bankrate.com. Money market and other bank savings accounts are also averaging well under 1%.6

Although many economists project overall U.S. inflation to remain modest in the near future, most see an uptick down the road. For investors, a well-rounded portfolio may be your best weapon. The key is to consider your time frame, your anticipated income needs, and how much volatility you are willing to accept, and then construct a portfolio with the mix investments with which you are comfortable. Consult your financial professional to discuss your specific needs and options.

1Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2012.

2Sources: TradingEconomics.com; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2012.

3Sources: Standard & Poor’s; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

4Source: Morgan Stanley. The MSCI EAFE and MSCI EM are unmanaged indexes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

5Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and are subject to availability and change in price.

6Source: Bankrate.com, January 20, 2012.

Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error by McGraw-Hill Financial Communications or its sources, neither McGraw-Hill Financial Communications nor its sources guarantees the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of such information. In no event shall McGraw-Hill Financial Communications be liable for any indirect, special or consequential damages in connection with subscriber’s or others’ use of the content.

© 2012 McGraw-Hill Financial Communications. All rights reserved.

Dear Investor,

            I believe what investors have experienced in the last decade is unprecedented. There was the dot-com bubble of the 1990′s where we saw companies without a real product or any earnings rise and fall at the speed of light. The bubble in the real estate market created by changes in the Community Reinvestment Act, which allowed individuals without proper qualifications to get financing and become a home owner, resulting in higher demand than usual for homes and the inevitable housing market decline. The pinch we all felt every time we pulled in to the station to pump gas as oil prices rocketed to $147 per barrel, and finally experiencing one of the biggest financial meltdowns in the history of our markets, where we witnessed some of the biggest and most successful institutions go bust.

 Although our markets have somewhat stabilized since the turmoil we faced just a few years ago and our major indices are trading way off their lows of 2009, I am sure you have noticed that not much has changed as we face what now seems to be financial difficulties in Europe. It is amazing to see how our domestic markets make moves of such magnitude in a matter of a few minutes simply based on what people say. This is just to name a few of the many we have encountered in the last decade, so What’s Next?

 I think at the very least the last 10 years should have proven that it is far too difficult for the average investor to analyze the financials of publicly traded companies. I am sure you have noticed even those who possess extensive knowledge and experience have found it difficult evaluating the financials of these companies to estimate their future growth. It amazes me how some stocks with significant drops from their all-time highs were rated and reiterated as strong buys by analysts covering them all the way down.

 Although the numbers that are being examined by these analysts have been audited by some of the largest and well known accounting firms out there, we can never be sure of their accuracy. Enron, World Com and Tyco are just a few examples. Therefore, as an average investor, we face way too many unknowns; this is the basis for why I believe so strongly in automated trading strategies where we simply put our opinions to the side and follow in the steps of those that have more of an influence on our markets.

 In an ongoing effort to provide transparency and clarity into how our Quant Trend Portfolio’s are managed, and to further educate our clients, I’ve decided to take the company that has dominated our financial media in recent few weeks MF Global, as an example to show how the strategy would have signaled the changes in its direction.  

 When you are using automated trading strategies, the computer doesn’t know anything about General Electric (GE), General Motors (GM), Bank of America (BAC) or MF Global (MF). The computer doesn’t know what the company does, who runs the company, how long it has been around, or that the company was at one point one of the darlings in many investors’ portfolios.

 If you think about it, there are only two known things to the computer, Price and Volume. Prices are nothing but a set of numbers, placed one after another, and the order or the sequence in which they are placed is dictated by Supply and Demand. Understand that for every buyer there is a seller, and for every seller there is a buyer; There will always be two sides to every transaction. But if there is a greater number of buyers (Demand), these numbers will begin to rise. Likewise, if there is greater number of sellers (Supply), these numbers will begin to fall. And if one exceeds the other by a wide margin, they will begin to rise or fall at a faster speed. Volume shows the degree of supply and demand.

 Therefore, to the computer the only thing separating Apple (AAPL) from Yahoo (YHOO), Gold (GLD-ETF) from Google (GOOG), or Silver (SLV-ETF) from the Euro (FXE-ETF) is just the order or the sequence of their prices being placed next to each other. When the sequence of the numbers representing AAPL rise faster than those representing GOOG, it simply means that there is a greater demand for the shares of AAPL than GOOG; or vice versa, if the sequence of the numbers that represent AAPL is falling faster than those representing GOOG, it means that there is a greater number of sellers for the shares of AAPL than GOOG. Quant Trend Portfolio’s screening process first starts by searching for the stocks where their prices are rising faster than 80% of all other stocks in our data-base.  

 To clarify this, let’s take a look at the chart of MF Global going back to its 2007 peak around $32 per share. As I am sure you know by now, once one of the largest broker dealers in the commodities and futures markets has filed for bankruptcy protection. At this point it’s not important what the company did or how smart the management was for the shareholders of MF Global. What’s significant for MF Global’s shareholders is that their investment has become almost worthless.

 In the bottom pane of the chart on the following page, I have included our proprietary Relative Performance indicator. The indicator is plotted on a scale with minimum/maximum values set to 0 and 100. This is an indicator that measures the performance of one stock relative to the performance of all other stocks in our data-base. In simple terms, the indicator is measuring and ranking the Relative Speed of the order or the sequence of numbers that represent one stock, which in this case is MF Global to all other stocks in our data-base. A value of 0 means that the stock is falling faster than all other stocks, while 100 means that the stock is rising faster than all other stocks; a value of 50 means that the stock is just average suggesting that there are plenty of other stocks that have been outperforming this one.

The theory behind our proprietary Relative Performance indicator during a market uptrend rests in the belief that the stocks rising the fastest are experiencing the most amount of accumulation by the institutions, while those that are rising slower are experiencing the least amount of accumulation. When the market is in a downtrend, those stocks that are declining the fastest are experiencing the most amount of distribution, while those that are falling slower are experiencing the least amount of distribution.

Now that you have a basic understanding into how the computer looks at these stocks and the ranking process, let’s look at MF Global’s history. As you can see, MF Global’s rank fell below 20 in October 2007 and stayed below 20 for the better part of the next 14 months as the stock dropped from $32 to almost $1.50 per share by November 2008, this indicates that the price of the stock was falling faster than 80% of all other stocks. As the market bottomed in early 2009, we can see how MF Global’s rank rose from under 20 to over 80, suggesting the stock was beginning to move higher faster than 80% of all other stocks in our data-base. MF Global’s rank remained above 80 for most of the next year as it traded as high as $7.50 per share by November 2009. On November 27, 2009 MF Global’s rank fell below 70 which is an automatic sell signal in the Quant Trend Portfolio. This was an indication that other stocks are staring to outperform MF Global which means there are better investment opportunities.  

 As you can see over the course of the next few months we see a sudden drop in its rank. By January 2010, its Rank once again fell and remained below 20 for the better part of the next twenty months before the fallout and the sovereign debt stake that led to its bankruptcy filing.   

 I would also like to point your attention to the chart from January 2010 to July 2011, when the stock just traded sideways for almost a year and a half while its rank remained below 20. This was indicating that, while MF Global was trading sideways, there were plenty of other stocks that were rising and performing better than MF Global stock. Therefore, the indicator warned of its lack of performance relative to all other stocks, which was due to a lack of institutional accumulation way before its bankruptcy filing.

 Below I have attached charts of Bank of America (BAC) and American International Group (AIG) as two other examples of companies that either flirted with bankruptcy or lost a significant amount of shareholder value in the last few years. Just like the MF Global chart, their charts are being painted green, yellow or red based on the sequence of their prices placed next to each other and nothing else.

 We can clearly see how during the financial meltdown of 2008 their charts were painted red, which indicates that they were also falling faster than 80% of all other stocks in our data-base. Soon after our markets bottomed in early 2009, they both started to rise at a rapid rate which was indicated by their ranks moving higher than 80. But that strength did not last for a long time. Bank of America’s (BAC) rank fell below70 in March of 2010 while American International Group’s (AIG) rank fell below 70 in January of 2011 which was the initial indication in lack of performance and an automatic sell signal within the Quant Trend Portfolio. As we can see their ranks fell below 20 soon after and has stayed below 20 ever since to indicate their underperformance relative to all other stocks.      

 I understand it is underlying factors such as earnings, sales and their business models that drive the institutions to take action, but it is the actions of the institutions that influence their stock prices, which should be the most important factor to the shareholder.  

 The Relative Performance indicator has the ability to reveal the true strength of the stock’s price  relative to all others, thus having the ability to avoid investments in companies for which their prices are falling at a rapid speed, in such cases as Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, MF Global and others.  

 The Relative Performance indicator is not a perfect indicator. Every indicator has its own strengths and weaknesses, therefore there is no such perfect indicator. Quantitative models are based on the law of probabilities, and the Relative Performance indicator is just one indicator that we believe increases those probabilities by allowing us to navigate institutional action. This is the reason why the Quant Trend Strategy uses multiple indicators, including fundamental ratings to generate their buy or sell signals.      

 In summary, it is our belief that the actions of institutions have a significant influence on the behavior of our markets. What we think about a company, its product line or the management team could be insignificant because, quite frankly, it is truly about what the institutions do that matters the most. In our opinion it’s best to put our emotions and opinions to the side and simply walk in their footsteps. So if the next decade is anything like the last one where we face bubbles in industries in which their companies trade at valuations never seen before, such as the dot-com, or we have industries that surge due to government corruption and a lack of proper supervision, like what led to the bubble in the real estate market and the financial meltdown of 2008, it won’t be our emotions or our opinions that will dictate what we do and when we do it, but the actions of large institutions that have a major impact on our markets.      

As always if there is anything that you don’t understand or if you need further assistance please don’t hesitate to contact us.

You can either use the comment section on the bottom of this page or email Rabin at rkaydanian@ppsadvisors.com.

Best Regards,

Rabin Kaydanian